Sometime early last year Little Nicky made one of Machiavelli blogs famous predictions. (Not all my predictions come true, I just don't mention the ones that don't.) In posting here and at Salon.com, Guardian News Blog, Gather.com and other venues I said that with public opinion in the U.S. turning against him, George Bush would delay the war with Iran until after the mid term elections which would go against the republicans. He would then start banging the wardrums and launch the attack in late 2007 or early 2008, providing an excuse to declare a national emergency and suspend the Presidential elections. Well I exaggerated about the last bit to boost readership, its more likely the attack on Iran will be a last desperate gamble to swing America behind the war and ensure a republican succession.
But most of it I stand by.
There follows the opening paragraph of an article written by Dan Plesch, an expert on Middle Eastern politics. It appeared in today's newspaper.
"The evidence is building up that President Bush plans to add war in Iran to his triumphs in Iraq and Afghanistan - and there is every sign, to judge by his warmongering speech in Plymouth last Friday that Tony Blair would be keen to join in if he were still in a position to commit British forces to the field."
And another point of view
Double brace yourselves folks because I now predict that Blair will now delay his resignation until after the invasion of Iran in order to gamble on being asked to stay on rather than "destabilise the government in a time of crisis." After all a change of leadership in such circumstances would be bad for morale. Wouldn't it?
Power is a very seductive mistress, especially to those with a messianic self image.